In January, the Netherlands and Japan, major suppliers of semiconductor manufacturing equipment, agreed in principle to implement US semiconductor export controls on China in October 2022, impeding China’s development of advanced semiconductors. Details of the trilateral agreement remain unclear, but restrictions on the sale of AI chips and advanced machine tools to China would significantly hamper China’s move toward high-tech self-sufficiency.
But these restrictions are just the first salvo in a series of unprecedented export controls against China planned by the Biden administration. Following the semiconductor regulation, the Department of Commerce is working on the next new technology China fears it will weaponize: quantum computing. Export restrictions on quantum computing hardware, error-correcting software, and the provision of cloud services to Chinese companies are poised to become the next frontier in the US-China tech war.
Quantum computing is a relatively new technology that uses the unique properties of quantum physics to build extremely powerful computers that derive their processing power from subatomic particles. Quantum computers could theoretically have much more computational power than today’s “classical” computers, allowing them to tackle problems that are currently impossible, such as breaking sophisticated cryptography. increase. However, the field is still in its infancy, and current quantum computers are error-prone and lack real-world applications.
Undersecretary of Industry and Security Alan Estevez said last year that he would “fund” the United States to enact additional export controls related to quantum computing, artificial intelligence (AI) and biotechnology. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimond doubled Estevez’s bet in a speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, saying the US “will step up.” [its] export control system” and “take measures to protect” [its] Beat China in quantum information science, semiconductors, AI, biotechnology, and clean energy technology.
U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced the policy in September 2022, stating that “computing-related, biotechnology, and clean technology are the true doubling of military power.” He said the U.S. would “impose export controls to maintain its lead.” Ahead of rivals such as China.” In other words, technologies like quantum computing have the ability to provide China with military and economic advantages through new cyberweapons and faster drug discovery, so the United States could take drastic measures against China. We are planning to enact unilateral export controls.
Policymakers in Washington are determined to keep the U.S. lead in quantum computing due to potential military applications. Researchers have warned that powerful quantum computers could thwart existing encryption schemes, and President Joe Biden wants federal agencies to transition to post-quantum cryptography by his 2035. This led to the issuance of a national security memorandum demanding
In 2021, three Chinese quantum computing organizations will be added to the Commerce Department’s Entity List, banning U.S. companies from selling their products without a license. The Commerce Department says these Chinese quantum computing groups are “supporting the military modernization of the People’s Liberation Army” and using U.S. technology to develop “anti-stealth and anti-submarine applications, as well as cryptanalysis capabilities.” I claimed. However, stronger measures may be taken.
The United States and China are the two most advanced countries in quantum computing, but the United States is clearly the world leader. China leads with three of her four most promising technological approaches to quantum computing, but China leads only with her one approach. From 2011 to her 2020, the United States produced the most quantum computing publications, with twice as many highly cited quantum computing publications as China’s. In addition, US quantum computing companies are 30 times more funded than her private Chinese counterparts, while government-backed Chinese research is also heavily funded.
China leads the world in quantum communications, a subfield of quantum information science that could enable ultra-secure data transfers, but Chinese scientists are skeptical of America’s dominance in quantum computing. I admit it. China’s top quantum computing researcher, Lu Chao-Yang, recently concluded that ‘Google is taking the lead’, with rumors that China has spent his $15 billion on quantum computing. “I don’t know” how it started, he added. ”
Since at least 2019, the Department of Commerce has been discussing export controls for quantum computing with the private sector. Little information is publicly available about these restrictions, but recent reports suggest they may target China’s quantum computing hardware, error-correcting software, and access to the cloud. We offer our services using the same regulatory tools as semiconductor export controls.
Quantum computing export controls, for example, could prohibit the sale of critical components to Chinese companies, similar to semiconductor export controls. One key technology that the US may restrict is dilution refrigerators. This creates extremely cold temperatures that allow individual atoms to be manipulated. There is little evidence that Chinese companies can produce dilution refrigerators on a large scale. The major players are Finnish Bluefors Oy, UK Oxford Instruments NanoScience and US JanisULT with 70% market share.
The Commerce Department could create export controls via the Foreign Direct Products Rule, which prohibits the sale of dilution refrigerators that rely on U.S. technology to Chinese companies, as it has done with advanced lithography tools for manufacturing semiconductors. There is a nature. Alternatively, the Department of Commerce could block the sale of the entire quantum computer and its critical components to China.
These restrictions may have some effect in the short term, but they are not as impactful as semiconductor export controls. Unlike semiconductors, foreign companies have few, if any, significant dependencies on U.S. quantum technology and components, so the use of substitutes for U.S. materials and components could circumvent export restrictions on dilution refrigerators. increase.
Quantum computing export restrictions could also block the sale of ion traps used to separate individual atoms in quantum computers. Export restrictions on the sale of ion traps to China could appeal to policy makers as the United States has a significant advantage in this area. No Chinese group has successfully developed a trapped-ion quantum computer, but both US companies Honeywell and IonQ have explored this technical approach.
Besides hardware, the Commerce Department is reportedly considering export controls for software that corrects quantum computer errors caused by mechanical vibrations and temperature fluctuations. Much of this software is now open source, which makes it difficult to restrict, but as quantum computing matures as a field and governments make it a national security priority, it becomes more privatized. may be restricted or restricted.
Unlike the semiconductor industry, quantum computing is a nascent field with no current commercial applications. Edward Parker, a physical scientist at the RAND Corporation and lead author of his 2022 report on the US and China Quantum, said: not yet. “As a result, the industry is not yet integrated around a single approach to building quantum computers, and the supply chain is underdeveloped, making export controls far less likely to be effective.” lower.
The most direct use of quantum computing is as a cloud service for companies wishing to rent quantum computers to perform large-scale computations. Washington is reportedly considering banning companies from providing cloud access to quantum computers to Chinese organizations, while U.S. companies such as IonQ and Rigetti, which derive most of their revenue from cloud services, are reportedly considering banning them. of startups are lagging behind. In a recent analysis, Parker found that quantum startups see “possible export controls as an existential threat.”
In September 2022, the Ministry of Commerce and the Ministry of Finance enacted export controls on the supply of dilution refrigerators, quantum software and cloud services to Russia and Belarus. Similar measures targeting China are not foolproof, but would pose a significant obstacle in the short term.
However, strong measures from Washington are likely to prompt a reaction from Beijing. , has already developed a set of policy tools that can be used to prevent foreign companies from expanding their technological advantage.
Chinese regulators, for example, have blocked British semiconductor company Arm from exiting its China joint venture with SoftBank, preventing it from raising capital through an initial public offering (IPO). An anonymous Chinese official said, “China doesn’t want to lose Arm at this point. … The chip war between the US and China continues to escalate, and Arm is a vital ally for China’s chip industry. .”
China’s newly expanded antitrust laws also give China ample opportunity to block mergers and joint ventures led by U.S. companies. The most recent antitrust target in the United States has been DuPont, which scrapped a deal to acquire advanced materials maker Rogers Corporation last November after China’s State Market Regulatory Authority (SAMR) delayed approval of the deal. bottom.
Another merger in SAMR’s crosshairs is Intel’s acquisition of Israeli chip maker Tower Semiconductor. This $5 billion deal is at the heart of Intel’s strategy to compete with Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) as foundries that manufacture customer-designed chips. The revival of Intel is a cornerstone of Washington’s semiconductor strategy, but the acquisition of Tower requires Beijing’s approval. SAMR has stalled the deal for a year, and will postpone it further because Tower is a key player in China’s semiconductor industry and would be subject to tighter U.S. control if it became part of Intel. There is a possibility.
Additionally, China could retaliate against export restrictions on quantum computing by restricting technology transfers to US companies in areas where China dominates global markets, such as electric vehicle batteries. In a stark example, following Ford’s announcement to license electric vehicle battery technology from Chinese giant CATL, which controls his 37% of global supply, Beijing plans to scrutinize licensing deals further. doing.
At China’s recent National People’s Congress, Chinese President Xi Jinping said he was both pleased and concerned about CATL’s market leadership. wiped out by others.
U.S. policymakers are gaining momentum in a tech race with China by implementing an unprecedented program of export controls in industries that China sees as the future driver of the economy. The risks of this strategy are substantial, and it is unclear whether restrictions on emerging technologies such as quantum computing could provoke a retaliatory response from Beijing.
