Smoking will disappear by 2050 in the United States, parts of Europe, Australia and large parts of Latin America if the downward trend seen in previous decades continues, wrote a Citigroup analyst in a note released Tuesday.
Cigarette consumption in a number of developing countries could drop to zero over the next three decades, according to a new report, as smokers quit or switch to alternative products.
Smoking will disappear by 2050 in the United States, parts of Europe, Australia and large parts of Latin America if the downward trend seen in recent decades continues, Adam wrote. Spielman, analyst at Citi, in a note released Tuesday.
The analysis shows how important it is for Big Tobacco to arm itself with competitive cigarette alternatives. The industry has undergone some of the biggest changes in its history: the number of children who currently smoke has fallen by nearly three-quarters in the past 20 years, male smoking is down for the first time in its history. history and cigarette volumes have been falling in a straight line for decades.
Philip Morris International Inc., the maker of Marlboro and Chesterfield cigarettes, has also reported that cigarettes could start to become obsolete within a decade. The company has taken the lead in smoking alternatives with its IQOS heated tobacco device, and now derives nearly a quarter of its revenue from non-combustible products, which has sparked a race with rivals like British American Tobacco Plc to convince smokers smoke- free products like vaping sachets and oral nicotine.
Altria Group Inc. is the biggest laggard in the report, as about 82% of its business comes from cigarettes, Spielman said. And while it does invest in alternatives, the company doesn’t always have control over those, given that its vape technology comes through a stake in Juul Labs Inc. and its exposure to the heat-no-burn category is only through the marketing of Philip Morris. IQOS.
Yet next-generation products have slowed the decline in nicotine consumption in many markets and may have reversed it in some, Spielman wrote.
In countries like China, France and Russia, smoking is likely to be still common in 2050.
“Current trends don’t suggest a world without cigarettes,” Spielman said.