THE tornadoes which recently tore through Sharkey County, Mississippi, left a trail of gruesome damage. More than 20 people were killed, an unusually high toll for a single event. Natural disasters cause significant property and economic damage in the United States every year, but due to the higher quality of the buildings, they have far fewer fatalities than similar events in Developing countries.
According to a 2021 Federal Reserve Poll16% of Americans experienced disruption in the past year due to natural disasters, with property damage being the most frequently reported event.
Many Americans wonder how to prepare for natural disasters and weather-related events. When I moved to downtown Los Angeles in 2009, my parents were worried that I would be injured in an earthquake. Although my apartment building — built in 1911 as offices and later converted to condos — stood intact for nearly 100 years, my parents imagined it falling apart like an accordion. They sent med kits with essentials for a disaster survival kit: solar powered radio, flashlight, first aid kit, plus notes reminding me to keep plenty of water in a bottle at your fingertips.
Predicting the exact time, location and severity of tornadoes, earthquakes and other disasters is impossible, even with the best scientific data and methods. But even in the face of uncertainty, there are several strategies that can reduce risk to our homes, neighborhoods, and financial well-being. At the same time, we should recognize the limits of individual actions and invest in broader community plans.
What risks should you prepare for?
Identifying relevant natural disaster risks is not as simple as it sounds. Many of us could accurately predict that California has a high risk of earthquakes, while Florida is more susceptible to hurricanes. But most parts of the United States face several types of risk. Southern California has a 75% probability of a very large earthquake within the next 30 years. But statistically, earthquakes are not the most probable event: from 1950 to 2017, about 7% of the emergency declarations were related to earthquakes, compared to 40% for floods and 30% for fires.
Often, the less obvious risks cause the most damage to our homes and infrastructure, precisely because we haven’t prepared for them. The Pacific Northwest traditionally has mild summers, and most homes don’t have air conditionerThus, an unexpected heat wave creates increased public health risks, especially for the elderly and other vulnerable groups. Homes in southern states like Texas and Mississippi are generally built to withstand hot weather, but cold snaps can cause freezing pipes and break, flooding homes.
Even at small geographic scales, natural geography and features of the built environment affect vulnerability to natural disasters. According to the Environmental Protection Agency’s Climate Change Interactive mapping toolsome blocks in downtown Los Angeles have flood risk below the 50th percentile, while other blocks less than a mile away — adjacent to the Los Angeles River — are above of the 90th percentile.
Geographic tools that map different types of climate risks at the neighborhood (or even property) level are becoming increasingly available to the general public. However, it is not yet known how or even whether–people will incorporate this information into their housing decisions. Varying climatic risks are unlikely to be the primary driver of location choice for most Americans. People decide which city to live in based on job opportunities, proximity to family and friends, or more innocuous climatic aspects like sun and warm temperatures.
On a smaller scale, however, climate mapping tools could be useful in nudging people to less risky neighborhoods in their favorite city. A study by real estate firm Redfin suggests that showing potential buyers property-level climate risk scores can encourage them to search for low-risk homes. Perhaps over time, local climate risk will become another neighborhood feature that people look for when deciding where to move or buy a home, such as when mapping subway stations or checking out the local restaurant scene.
Strengthen your home against earthquakes, wind, water and fire
Many high-rise buildings in Historic Downtown Los Angeles date from the 1910s and 1920s, when the neighborhood was home to banks and other financial services. The city’s geographic center shifted west after World War II, leaving dozens of mostly vacant buildings. In the 1990s, as demand for downtown housing began to grow, the city adopted a Adaptive Reuse Ordinance which allowed old commercial buildings to be converted into homes.
By then, architects and engineers had developed more efficient and sophisticated construction techniques to protect tall buildings from seismic activity – an important consideration in both LA and the Bay Area. Transforming a vacant office building into condos required the developer to upgrade the building to comply with modern building codes. The seismic improvements are Dear, costing from $40,000 for small buildings to over $1 million for large ones. But they are very effective at protecting structures – and the people inside – in the event of an earthquake.
Seismic retrofits are just one example of how building technologies, materials and techniques can help guard against natural disasters and weather-related events. As technology has improved, many states have adopted building codes requiring new homes to include new safety features, from fire-resistant exterior building materials in western states to wind-resistant roofs and windows in Florida. But building code changes generally don’t apply retroactively, and many older homes simply aren’t built to withstand today’s climatic stresses without substantial upgrades and ongoing maintenance. Today, the typical American home is over 40 years old – the oldest in our housing stock. Mobile homes (which accounted for about 30% of homes in Sharkey County, MS) are among the most affordable homes in rural areas, but are especially vulnerable to hurricanes and tornadoes.
Determine what types of structural upgrades could make your safer home requires both expert advice on technical options and a bit of financial math. For example, pruning vegetation near your home can reduce the risk of damage from wildfires for a relatively modest cost; on the other hand, replacing the wood exterior materials with firebrick could cost upwards of $60,000. Homeowners with good credit and high-value homes may be able to finance these improvements with a home equity loan, but this is neither feasible nor prudent for many people. And renters are generally not allowed to alter the structural features of their homes, although they can ask their landlord to make security upgrades.
The fine print of your home or tenant insurance
Mortgage lenders require home buyers to buy Home Insurance to protect the value of the warranty, but standard policies have limits on what they will cover. Above all, damage caused by earthquakes and floods are not covered. Insurance companies sell specialized fonts for natural disasters, but these policies are quite costly. (Only about 10% of California homeowners have earthquake insurance.) Homeowners in high flood risk areas who have federally backed mortgages are required to carry flood insurance with the federal government National Flood Insurance Programbut the increasing frequency and size of insurance payouts due to climate change is creating intense financial pressure on both private And audience insurance programs.
Tenants can–and should– also take out home insurance, which covers the value of their personal effects. For people who want to live in places with both high-risk and attractive weather (think beachfront property in South Florida), renting offers some advantages over buying. Tenants only commit to stay for the duration of the lease (usually one year), and furthermore, diversified financial assets such as mutual funds are less exposed to climate risk than putting all the savings of a living in the down payment of a single house that could be underwater (literally and figuratively) in 10 years.
The paradox of risk
Developing an action plan for households to reduce their climate and natural disaster risk is only the first step. Finding effective ways to encourage and support people in carrying out these plans raises other challenges. Florida saw the fastest growing population of any US state in 2022, not because people who move ignore hurricanes, but because people love beaches and sunshine. The poor live in risky placeslike the flood-prone areas of Houstonbecause the accommodation is there cheap and they have few other options.
There are limits to what we can accomplish through individual effort. We will all be safer if we live in neighborhoods where surrounding buildings and infrastructure have been upgraded to withstand natural disasters. Federal disaster recovery programs are Poorly designed provide assistance to vulnerable communities. We also need to look at the ways in which our systems housing, land useand transportation create environmental damage. Achieving these broader goals will require building broader political coalitions, not just preaching to the choir.
I never needed to use the disaster kit provided by my parents. The biggest earthquake in my five years in Los Angeles happened around 5am, and I slept thanks to the building’s highly efficient seismic retrofits. Or maybe it was just luck.
Jenny Schuetz is a senior researcher at Brookings Metro.
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